Providing a Predictive Model of the Impact of Human Resource Innovations on Organizational Performance Using Qualitative Analysis and Scenario Planning

Qomi, Faezeh; Molavi, Zeinab

doi:10.22034/jmep.2026.576622.1626

Providing a Predictive Model of the Impact of Human Resource Innovations on Organizational Performance Using Qualitative Analysis and Scenario Planning

Document Type : Original Article (Qualitative)

Authors

Faezeh Qomi ¹

Zeinab Molavi ²

¹ Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Farabi College, University of Tehran, Qom, Iran

² Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Farabi College, University of Tehran, Qom, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22034/jmep.2026.576622.1626

Abstract

Abstract
The present study aims to analyze a predictive model of the impact of human resource (HR) innovations on organizational performance using a futures studies approach. The research method is qualitative and applicable in nature. The statistical population consisted of 20 experts and specialists from the Mashhad Tax Administration, selected through purposive sampling. A semi‑structured interview was used as the data collection instrument. Qualitative content analysis and Scenario Wizard software were employed for data analysis. Based on the qualitative findings, three main scenarios were formulated: very low HR innovation, moderate HR innovation, and very high HR innovation. The results indicate that at low levels of innovation, organizational performance faces challenges such as reduced productivity, resistance to change, and weak employee motivation; while at moderate levels, a relative improvement in performance is observed, though this improvement is not sustainable. In contrast, in the scenario of very high HR innovation, HR innovations become systematically institutionalized, leading to significant enhancement of organizational performance, increased productivity, improved service quality, and strengthened organizational accountability. The findings underscore the strategic necessity for managers to prioritize HR innovations as a key lever for improving the performance of public sector organizations.
Introduction
Given the increasing complexity of work environments and escalating competition among organizations, companies are seeking to leverage novel human resource management (HRM) practices that not only enhance efficiency but also facilitate organizational innovation. Researches emphasize that the utilization of digital HRM tools and systems augments an organization’s capacity for knowledge management, expedites decision-making processes, and fosters employee creativity (Riana et al., 2020).
Considering the significance of innovation in Iranian public and industrial organizations, the design of a comprehensive innovative human capital model has emerged as a key strategy. Rasouli et al. (2024) posit that adopting systematic approaches in HRM, while enhancing employee motivation and job satisfaction, leads to increased productivity and strengthens innovation within organizations. Furthermore, Shabrangi & Amirnejad (2022) demonstrated in their study that strategic HRM, by leveraging organizational entrepreneurship, can significantly improve organizational performance and enhance innovation capacity as a mediator. These studies suggest that human resources are not merely a supporting factor for daily operations but rather a catalyst for driving innovative changes and achieving the strategic objectives of an organization.
On an international level, the impact of HRM on organizations’ innovative performance has also been investigated. Salas-Arbeláez (2020) found that in Colombian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the implementation of modern HR practices, including continuous training, employee participation, and performance management, has a direct and positive influence on the organization’s innovative capabilities. Wang et al. (2024) further emphasized that high-performance work systems, through intrinsic employee motivation and person-organization fit, significantly impact innovative organizational performance. These findings highlight the importance of creating flexible work environments and encouraging continuous learning, as these factors enhance innovation capabilities and improve overall organizational performance. Therefore, this study endeavors to address the question of how to analyze a predictive model for the impact of human resource innovations on organizational performance from a futures studies perspective.
Theoretical Framework
Innovation
Innovation refers to the ability to synthesize resources in novel ways to create new goods, new production methods, open new markets, and sometimes even reorganize an industry (Azeem et al., 2021). According to Alain Afflelou, innovation is the application of new knowledge to offer new products or services based on customer demand (Amiri et al., 2015).
Human Resources
Organizational resources are, in fact, the assets of an organization that enable it to design and implement strategies aimed at increasing productivity and efficiency, and ultimately, the growth of the organization’s competitiveness. These organizational resources possess specific characteristics (Fazlali & Moazzammi, 2023).
Organizational Performance
Organizational performance is a complex phenomenon. Perhaps the simplest definition is the collection of activities directed towards achieving organizational goals. Therefore, organizational performance relates to the extent to which an organization has met its objectives. Organizations must be capable of identifying organizational performance indicators that facilitate rapid adaptation to new problems and changes in the business environment (Brumand & Panahi, 2023).
Guha et al. (2025) investigated the enhancement of employee innovation capabilities through high-involvement human resource management, examining the mediating roles of knowledge sharing and transformational leadership. By analyzing high-involvement HR management practices, they demonstrated the impact of knowledge sharing and transformational leadership in increasing employee innovation capacity.
Cahyadi et al. (2024) explored innovation in human resource management and employee resilience in small and medium-sized enterprises. Emphasizing innovation in human resource management and employee flexibility, they showed that innovative human resources lead to increased organizational resilience and improved performance.
Research Methodology
The research methodology is qualitative and of the applicable type. The statistical population of the study includes 20 experts and specialists from the Tax Administration of Mashhad city, selected by purposive sampling. The data collection tool used is semi-structured interviews.
Research Findings
Qualitative content analysis was used to analyze the findings. Based on the results of the qualitative analysis, three main scenarios were developed: very low human resource innovation, medium human resource innovation, and very high human resource innovation. The findings indicate that at low levels of innovation, organizational performance faces challenges such as reduced productivity, resistance to change, and weak employee motivation. While at the medium level; a relative improvement in performance is observed, this improvement is not sustainable. In contrast, in the very high innovation scenario, human resource innovations are systematically institutionalized, leading to a significant enhancement of organizational performance, increased productivity, improved service quality, and strengthened organizational responsiveness. The results of this research emphasize the necessity for managers to strategically focus on human resource innovations as a key leverage for improving the performance of public organizations.
Conclusion
The present research was conducted with the aim of analyzing the predictive model of the impact of human resource innovations on organizational performance using a futures studies approach. The results of this research are aligned with the findings of Guha et al. (2025), Cahyadi et al. (2024), Rasouli et al. (2024), Turulja et al. (2023), Aslam et al. (2023), Shabrangi & Amirnejad (2022), Sabkroo et al. (2022), and Kathirlu & Naeami (2020). Rasouli et al. (2024) concluded that the implementation of such models can lead to the enhancement of organizational performance and competitive ability. Turulja et al. (2023) also stated that novel human resource management practices improve organizational performance through the mediating effect of innovation.
It is recommended that policymakers and managers of government organizations, especially in crucial areas such as the tax system, provide the ground for improving organizational performance, increasing public trust, and enhancing the efficiency of the administrative system by making targeted investments in human resource innovations. This research can serve as a basis for strategic decision-making, the formulation of human resource policies, and the design of future organizational transformation programs.

Keywords

Innovation

Human Resources

Organizational Performance

Human Resource Management

Productivity

Service Quality

Organizational Accountability

Subjects

Human Resource Management

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