Management and Educational Perspective

Providing a Predictive Model of the Impact of Human Resource Innovations on Organizational Performance Using Qualitative Analysis and Scenario Planning

Document Type : Original Article (Qualitative)

Authors

Faezeh Qomi 1
Zeinab Molavi 2

1 Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Farabi College, University of Tehran, Qom, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Farabi College, University of Tehran, Qom, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22034/jmep.2026.576622.1626
Abstract
The present study aims to analyze the predictive model of the impact of human resource innovations on organizational performance with a futures research approach. The research method is qualitative and applied. The statistical population of the study includes 20 experts and specialists from the Tax Affairs Department of Mashhad who were selected through purposive sampling. The data collection tool is a semi-structured interview. Qualitative content analysis method and Scenario Wizard software were used to analyze the findings. Based on the results of the qualitative analysis, three main scenarios were developed, including very low human resource innovation, medium human resource innovation, and very high human resource innovation. The findings show that, at low levels of innovation, organizational performance faces challenges such as reduced productivity, resistance to change, and weak employee motivation; while at medium levels, relative performance improvement is observed, but this improvement is not sustainable. In contrast, in the very high innovation scenario, HR innovations are systematically institutionalized and significantly improve organizational performance, increase productivity, improve service quality, and strengthen organizational accountability. The results of this study emphasize the need for managers to pay strategic attention to HR innovations as a key lever in improving the performance of government organizations.

Keywords

Innovation
Human Resources
Organizational Performance
Human Resource Management
Productivity
Service Quality
Organizational Accountability
Subjects

  • Receive Date 19 January 2026
  • Revise Date 26 February 2026
  • Accept Date 09 April 2026

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